Wednesday, February 11, 2004
NO FAITH IN THE COMMENTS
Niles:
Excellent post. I'm going to post my reply here because I the comments keep crashing. Besides, this is how they dialogue back and forth over at U.S.S. Mariner, and it seems to work for them.
Fear not for Travis Lee. As you suggested in a recent chat, he'll probably be a playing first base for the DePodesta Dodgers. (And I argued the Dodgers sign a similar player months ago to help provide a modicrum of improvement and to clear payroll for Vlad Guerrero. So much for that part of the plan.)
But Lee's an interesting player.
Lee was drafted by the Twins in the first round of the '96 draft, a polished hitter out of San Diego State University and considered the top amateur baseball player in the country. But contract issues kept him from signing with the Twins, and instead signed later that year with the Diamondbacks as a free agent.
The next year, he started his professional career at the age of 22 in A ball hitting .363/.473/.690 (.385 GPA) in 61 games, and bypassing AA altogether, was "loaned" to the Brewers' AAA affiliate where to continued to mash without missing a beat hitting .300/.387/.573 (.317 GPA) in 59 games. In other words, he quickly proved he could work the count and hit the bejesus out of the ball.
Fortunately, the Diamondbacks got him back for the '98 season, and he had a promising rookie campaign: .269/.346/.429 (.263 GPA) in 140 games.
Unfortunately, it was all downhill from there.
Without any warning, Lee seriously regressed in '99, hitting .237/.337/.363 (.242 GPA) in 120 games.
He started the millenium pretty much where he left off (.232/.308/.397) before given a new home as part of the package of Diamondbacks sent to the Phillies mid-season in exchange for Curt Schilling.
New city, same disappointments:
'00 .239/.381/.328 (.253 GPA)
When Philadelphia invested big free agent money to sign the kind of player Lee was supposed to be but wasn't in '03, the now 28-year-old Lee signed a one year deal with the Rays.
The weird thing about Lee's regression and then stagnation is that it defies almost all analysis. He wasn't injured. He didn't lose command of the strike zone. Like Jeremy Giambi, his failed developed is still the cause of considerable debate.
Lee clearly had a career year with the Rays last year, and looking back at BP's PETCO 2003 predictions, he pushed pretty much near the limit of what could reasonably expected of him as a major leaguer.
Will he match that .271 GPA again in '04? Maybe.
But then again maybe Tino might too.
The Rays are only paying $1.5M of Tino's $8M contract this year.
Anything more than that for Lee clearly isn't worthwhile.
All of this is, of course, ridiculous. Aubrey Huff should be the opening day first baseman. And that, you're right, is the true sign of LaMar's incompetence.
'01 .258/.341/.434 (.262 GPA)
'02 .265/.331/.394 (.247 GPA)
