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Saturday, May 01, 2004

CASE STUDY: 1 MONTH IN

WARNING: Small Sample Size Caveat applies to all of the preceding

Back in March I openly speculated about the effect that the new Dodger management would have on Adrian Beltre. At the time, my speculation came about because Beltre came up as a patient, disciplined, young slugger and had since evolved into an offensively inept hacker with the major league team. I wanted to see if the influence of a sabermetrically inclined front office would help Beltre become the disciplined, patient, and potent offensive player he once was. Well, Beltre is producing, just not how I thought he would be.

  1. .254/.300/.421/.240 (AVG/OBP/SLG/GPA) 1:2.75 (BB:K) 15.9 (ABperBB)
  2. .353/.367/.647/.327 (AVG/OBP/SLG/GPA) 1:4 (BB:K) 42.5 (ABperBB)

The first line is Beltre's combined performance from 2001 through 2003; the second line is Beltre's performance thus far in 2004. Beltre has seemingly taken the concept of plate patience and thrown it out the window, while making an enormous leap in his production. His pitches per plate appearance are also at a career low 3.47. On the "positive" side, Beltre also has a career low strikeout rate. At this point I have no clue how to really define Beltre's season. He has made the offensive production improvements the Dodgers needed him to, but in ways that no one could have envisioned; he's like the old Ichiro!, but with power. I don't think Beltre can maintain his production with type of walk/patience numbers he has, so I would look for him to improve on this, but then again I never could have envisioned him starting off the season like this.

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